Thursday, 17 May 2018

Britain WILL be able to strike its own trade deals after 2020: May scrambles to reassure Brexiteers amid claims she has caved to the EU and agreed the UK could stay tied to customs union for longer

  • Britain could stay tied to customs union beyond 2020 under new 'backstop' plan
  • Proposal was agreed at Brexit War Cabinet this week and will be put to the EU
  • PM raised idea with EU leaders at meetings in Sofia before visiting Macedonia
  • Theresa May said she will publish the UK's plans for a 'fallback option' shortly
  • She insisted the plan would allow the UK to strike its own free trade deals 

  • Theresa May insisted Britain will have an 'independent trade policy' after 2020 today as she denied caving into the EU over Brexit.
    The Prime Minister faced a backlash from Eurosceptics after it emerged her 'war Cabinet' has signed off on an extension as part of a 'backstop' that would avoid a hard Irish border if no other solutions are found.
    She confirmed this evening the UK would soon be putting forward its plans for a fallback option to address the irish border question after Brexit.
    But she insisted the proposal would not prevent the UK striking trade deals with other countries.
    The defiant stance came after Irish PM Leo Varakdar - who held talks with Mrs May at a summit in Sofia today - upped the pressure by warning that negotiations could collapse altogether unless there is movement on the border issue.

    Speaking at a press conference in Macedonia (pictured, the PM with Macedonian counterpart Zoran Zaev) where she travelled after the EU gathering in Bulgaria, Mrs May repeated her pledge that the UK will leave the customs union in 2020

    Speaking at a press conference in Macedonia (pictured, the PM with Macedonian counterpart Zoran Zaev) where she travelled after the EU gathering in Bulgaria, Mrs May repeated her pledge that the UK will leave the customs union in 2020
    The Prime Minister (pictured in Macedonia today with Mecedonia's PM Zoran Zaev)  faced a backlash from Eurosceptics after it emerged her 'war Cabinet' has signed off on an extension as part of a 'backstop' that would avoid a hard Irish border if no other solutions are found
    The Prime Minister (pictured in Macedonia today with Mecedonia's PM Zoran Zaev)  faced a backlash from Eurosceptics after it emerged her 'war Cabinet' has signed off on an extension as part of a 'backstop' that would avoid a hard Irish border if no other solutions are found
    Mrs May seemed to be having a good time with Emmanuel Macron (left) and Angela Merkel (right) as they arrived for the summit in Sofia today
    Mrs May seemed to be having a good time with Emmanuel Macron (left) and Angela Merkel (right) as they arrived for the summit in Sofia today
    Theresa May (left) held talks with Irish PM Leo Varadkar (right) at the gathering of EU leaders in Bulgaria today
    Theresa May (left) held talks with Irish PM Leo Varadkar (right) at the gathering of EU leaders in Bulgaria today

    Speaking at a press conference in Macedonia, where she travelled after the EU gathering in Bulgaria, Mrs May repeated her pledge that the UK will leave the existing customs union in 2020.
    She insisted that meant there would be an 'independent trade policy'. 
    'In December, when the joint report was published between the European Union and the United Kingdom we set out clearly options in relation to the commitment that we have given for no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland,' she said. 
    'We expect that to be dealt with through the overall relationship we have with the European Union, but there were then two further levels of options including a final fallback option. 
    'The commission published a fallback option which was not acceptable to us and we will be bringing forward our own proposal for that fallback option in due course.' 

    WHEN WILL BRITAIN BE OUT OF THE EU?

    Britain triggered Article 50 on March 29, 2017, starting a two year process for leaving the EU: 
    March 2018: Outline transition deal agreed, running for about two years
    June 2018: EU summit that Brussels says should consider broad principles of a future trade deal. 
    October 2018: Political agreement on the future partnership due to be reached
    Early 2019: Major votes in Westminster and Brussels to ratify the deal 
    March 29, 2019: Article 50 expires, Britain leaves the EU. Transition is expected to keep everything the same for about two years
    December 31, 2020: Transition expected to come to an end and the new relationship - if it has been agreed - should kick inThe issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic has emerged as the crunch point in talks with the EU.
    A divorce deal struck by Mrs May before Christmas included a backstop that if no other solutions were found to avoid a hard border, the UK would stay aligned to EU rules in key areas.
    However, a legal text of the document produced by Brussels since then has been condemned as unacceptable by the PM as it would effectively draw a red line down the Irish sea and split the UK.
    The Brexit War Cabinet session this week focused on ways to resolve the standoff, amid threats from the EU to halt wider trade negotiations unless the border issue can be guaranteed.
    Ministers have signed off on a counter-proposal for a 'backstop' that would UK effectively keep the UK in a customs union beyond the end of a mooted transitional period in December 2020. 
    To soothe concerns of Brexiteers, it would include a 'sunset' clause ensuring Britain does leave in the end. There would also need to be a major concession from Brussels that the UK could implement trade deals with other countries during the extension period.
    Senior Whitehall sources stressed that the plan was a fallback, and not 'something we ever expect to happen'. 
    One source said: 'It's about providing an alternative to the EU's border down the Irish Sea.'  
    Mr Varadkar and EU negotiator Michel Barnier have been taking a tough line, and the Dublin premier stepped up his rhetoric again today.
    The row erupted as the PM attended an EU summit in Bulgaria today, meeting commission president Jean-Claude Juncker among others (pictured) 
    The row erupted as the PM attended an EU summit in Bulgaria today, meeting commission president Jean-Claude Juncker among others (pictured) 
    Mrs May tucked in to breakfast with her fellow EU leaders as the summit got under way today
    Mrs May tucked in to breakfast with her fellow EU leaders as the summit got under way today
    Mrs May (left) and Mrs Merkel (right) arrived together for the informal EU summit with West Balkan counties in Bulgaria today
    Mrs May (left) and Mrs Merkel (right) arrived together for the informal EU summit with West Balkan counties in Bulgaria today
    The PM went to Macedonia to meet counterpart Zoran Zaev (left) after attending the summit in Sofia this morning
    The PM went to Macedonia to meet counterpart Zoran Zaev (left) after attending the summit in Sofia this morning
    'The deadline for the withdrawal agreement is October, but if we're not making real and substantial progress by June then we need to seriously question whether we're going to have a withdrawal agreement at all,' Varadkar told reporters in Sofia.
    He added that it was an 'absolute red line' for Ireland not to have a hard border on the island and all 27 remaining EU states supported the current 'backstop' proposal in the Withdrawal Agreement - which Mrs May has said no British prime minister could accept.
    'If the UK wants to put forward alternatives to that - whether it's an alternative text to the backstop or whether it's some some sort of alternative relationship between the UK and the EU - we are willing to examine that.

    Brussels 'is playing for time while parliament weakens May' 

    The EU is playing for time in Brexit talks in the hopes that the parliament will derail the government's plans, it has been claimed. 
    An unnamed minister suggested Brussels was refusing to strike a deal on trade and the Irish border because they believed Theresa May was being weakened domestically. 
    The government suffered 15 defeats on its flagship Brexit Bill in the Lords.
    Mrs May now faces a series of potentially disastrous showdowns in the Commons as she bids to get the Bill back on track. 
    Tory rebels are also threatening to side with Labour to demand the UK stays in the customs union. 
    'As we warned, the EU are now negotiating with parliament, not us, and they are playing for time while they see what MPs say,' a minister told The Sun.'But we need to see it written down in black and white, we need to know that it's workable and legally operable and we have yet to see anything that remotely approaches that.' 
    Mrs May told Mr Varadkar and European Council president Donald Tusk in talks that Britain would be putting forward its own 'backstop' proposal 'shortly'. 
    The government hopes that it can come up with a trade plan that would keep a soft Irish border while allowing Britain to set its own tariffs and trade policy.
    However, the Cabinet is deadlocked between two options. The customs partnership favoured by Remain-minded ministers would entail the UK collecting taxes on behalf of Brussels and acting as its regulatory enforcer.
    The 'Maximum Facilitation' proposal backed by Brexiteers would rely on technology and trusted trader schemes to make the border as fluid as possible.
    Ministers admit that neither option is currently workable, and time is running short to get the necessary systems in place by the end of the potential transition period.
    Mr Rees-Mogg told the Daily Telegraph: 'The risk of the Government using all its mental energy on the fallback position is that it creates a position that is more attractive than a permanent deal.
    'We have gone from a clear end point, to an extension, to a proposed further extension with no end point. The horizon seems to be unreachable.
    'The bottom of the rainbow seems to be unattainable. People voted to leave, they did not vote for purgatory.'
    Boris Johnson (pictured left meeting former PM Gordon Brown at the Foreign Office yesterday) is said to have raised objections to the idea - but was 'outgunned' by other ministers and reluctantly accepted defeatBoris Johnson (pictured left meeting former PM Gordon Brown at the Foreign Office yesterday) is said to have raised objections to the idea - but was 'outgunned' by other ministers and reluctantly accepted defeat
     
    What are the options on the table for a customs deal with the EU? 
    With time ticking away on the Brexit negotiations, the Cabinet is still at daggers drawn on the shape for future trade relations with the EU.
    The government has set out two potential options for a customs system after the UK leaves the bloc.
    But despite a series of tense showdowns at Theresa May's Brexit 'War Cabinet' ministers continue to be deadlocked over what to do.
    Meanwhile, Brussels has dismissed both the ideas - and warned that negotiations could stall altogether unless there is progress by a key summit next month. 
    They are demanding the UK agrees to a 'backstop' in the Withdrawal Agreement that Mrs May has rejected as unacceptable because it would draw a customs border down the Irish Sea and split the UK.
    Despite a series of tense showdowns at Theresa May's 'War Cabinet' (pictured in February) ministers continue to be deadlocked over what to do
    Despite a series of tense showdowns at Theresa May's 'War Cabinet' (pictured in February) ministers continue to be deadlocked over what to do
    OPTION 1 - CUSTOMS PARTNERSHIP 
    Under the so-called 'hybrid model', the UK would collect EU import tariffs on behalf of Brussels.
    Britain would be responsible for tracking the origin and final destination of goods coming into the country from outside the EU. The government would also have to ensure all products meet the bloc's standards.
    Firms selling directly into the UK market would pay the tariff levels set by Brussels - but would then get a rebate if Britain's tariffs are lower. 
    Supporters of the hybrid plan in Cabinet - including Theresa May, Philip Hammond and Greg Clark - say keeping duties aligned up front would avoid the need for physical customs borders between the UK and EU.
    As a result it could solve the thorny issue over creating a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
    Mrs May has been advised by the chief whip that the hybrid option could be the only way of securing a majority in parliament for a Brexit deal. 
    But Brexiteers regard the proposal as unworkable and cumbersome - and they were joined by Sajid Javid and Gavin Williamson in criticising it at a tense 'War Cabinet' meeting last week.
    There are fears the experimental system will either collapse and cause chaos, or prevent the UK from being able to negotiate free trade deals around the world after Brexit.
    Mrs May has instructed official to go away and revise the ideas. Eurosceptics are braced for her to bring back the plan with only 'cosmetic' changes, and try to 'peel off' Mr Javid and Mr Williamson from the core group of Brexiteers.
    They are also ready for Mrs May to attempt to bypass the 'War Cabinet' altogether and put the issue before the whole Cabinet - where she has more allies. 
    OPTION 2 - MAXIMUM FACILITATION
    The 'Max Fac' option accepts that there will be greater friction at Britain's borders with the EU. 
    But it would aim to minimise the issues using technology and mutual recognition.
    Goods could be electronically tracked and pre-cleared by tax authorities on each side.
    Shipping firms could also be given 'trusted trader' status so they can move goods freely, and only pay tariffs when they are delivered to the destination country.
    Companies would also be trusted to ensure they were meeting the relevant UK and EU standards on products.
    Senior ministers such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Liam Fox believe this is the only workable option. 
    But Remain minded Tories such as Mr Clark insist it will harm trade and cost jobs in the UK.
    They also warn that it will require more physical infrastructure on the Irish border - potentially breaching the Good Friday Agreement. It is far from clear whether the government would be able to force anything through parliament that implied a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.  
    The EU has dismissed the idea that 'Max Fac' could prevent checks on the Irish border as 'magical thinking'.

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